Page Header

The Analysis of the Forest Fires in Turkey with Statistical Quality Control Method

Tugrul Varol, Mertol Ertuğrul, Halil Barış ÖZEL

Abstract


Fire is one of the most serious hazards for forests on earth. Despite each kind of technological development and equipment, fire activity has an increasing trend because of especially climate change and socio-economic reasons. Although fire extinguishing organizations, today, try to suppress this increasing risk with a maximum effort, the big fires in some places cause the enormous areas to get burned.  The fires as big as natural disasters cannot be extinguished most of the time in spite of any efforts or methods when the extreme fire weather conditions come together with inflammable matters and ignition sources.

In this study, the number and area of forest fires in Turkey were investigated through statistical quality control method. Despite the decreasing trend of forest fires in terms of area size, the possibility of large fires always exists in the whole Mediterranean Region due to the socio-economic conditions such as increasing human population, migration and any changes that could affect fire activity in climate conditions. As a result of the study, it is seen that there is an overall increase in the number of fires while the burned area decreases. Out-of-control behaviors in control graphs are not in a continuous trend but sometimes exceed the control limits. This condition is seen to be positive as a trend but also points to the possibility of unexpected annual burned area and the number of fires.


Keywords


Forest fire, statistical quality control, number of fire, burnt area

Full Text:

PDF

References


Akkaş ME, Bucak C, Boza Z, et al. 2008, Aegean Forestry Research Institute, Technical Bullet No: 36, İzmir.

Baş R, 1965, Türkiye'de Orman Yangınları Problemi Ve Bazı Klimatik Faktörlerin Yangınlara Etkileri Üzerine Araştırmalar. İÜ Orman Fakültesi Dergisi, Series A, Vol 15, No2.

Benneyan JC, 1998, Statistical quality control methods in infection control and hospital epidemiology, Part II: Chart use, statistical properties, and research issues. Infection control and hospital epidemiology, 265-283.

Brotons L, Aquilué N, De Cáceres et al, 2013, How fire history, fire suppression practices and climate change affect wildfire regimes in Mediterranean landscapes. PLOS one, 8(5), e62392.

Darques R, 2015, Mediterranean cities under fire. A critical approach to the wildland–urban interface. Applied Geography, 59, 10-21.

Demir İ, Kılıç G, Coşkun M, et al. 2008, Türkiye’de maksimum, minimum ve ortalama hava sıcaklıkları ile yağış dizilerinde gözlenen değişiklikler ve eğilimler. TMMOB İklim Değişimi Sempozyumu Bildiriler Kitabı, 69-84.

Demir İ, Kılıç G and Coşkun M, 2008, PRECIS Bölgesel İklim Modeli İle Türkiye İçin İklim Öngörüleri: HaDAMP3 Sres A2 Senaryosu. Atmosfer Bilimleri Sempozyumu, Bildiriler Kitabı, 365-373.

Filipe AF, Lawrence JE and Bonada N, 2013, Vulnerability of stream biota to climate change in mediterranean climate regions: a synthesis of ecological responses and conservation challenges. Hydrobiologia, 719(1), 331-351.

Giorgi F and Lionello P, 2008, Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region. Global and planetary change, 63(2), 90-104.

Hantson S, Pueyo S, and Chuvieco E, 2015, Global fire size distribution is driven by human impact and climate. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 24(1), 77-86

Kantarcı D, 2009, Taşağıl – Serik (Antalya) orman yangını (31.7.2008 – 4.8.2008) ve yangın sonrası öngörülen işlemler üzerine ekolojik değerlendirmeler. Orman Mühendisliği Dergisi, Yıl: 46, Sayı 1-3, ISSN 1 301-3572 (33-37)-Ankara.

Karali A, Hatzaki M, Giannakopoulos C, et al. 2014, Sensitivity and evaluation of current fire risk and future projections due to climate change: the case study of Greece. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 14(1), 143-153.

Kasischke ES and Turetsky MR, 2006, Recent changes in the fire regime across the North American boreal region—spatial and temporal patterns of burning across Canada and Alaska. Geophysical research letters, 33(9).

Koutsias N, Xanthopoulos G, Founda D et al. 2013, On the relationships between forest fires and weather conditions in Greece from long-term national observations (1894–2010). International Journal of Wildland Fire, 22(4), 493-507.

Küçük Ö and Sağlam B, 2004, Orman Yangınları ve Hava Halleri. Gazi Üniversitesi Orman Fakültesi Dergisi. Kastamonu, 4(2), 220-230.

Lelieveld J, Hadjinicolaou P, Kostopoulou E, et al. 2012, Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. Climatic Change, 114(3-4), 667-687.

Martell DL, Otukol S and Stocks BJ, 1987, A logistic model for predicting daily people-caused forest fire occurrence in Ontario. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 17(5), 394-401.

Martell DL, 2017, Climate change extending forest fire season in Ontario & Alberta, researcher finds, viewed July 17 2014, http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/thunder-bay/thunder-bay-forest-fires-climate-change-1.4198485

Montgomery DC, 2009, Statistical Quality Control (Vol. 7). New York: Wiley.

Oakland JS, 2007, Statistical Process Control. Routledge.

Organ A and Gürbüz T, 2012, Hastanelerde enfeksiyon alanlarının belirlenmesine yönelik istatistiksel kalite kontrol çalışması. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, Sayı 13, 2012, Sayfa 43 - 54.

Pausas JG and Fernández-Muñoz S, 2012, Fire regime changes in the Western Mediterranean Basin: from fuel-limited to drought-driven fire regime. Climatic change, 110(1), 215-226.

Piñol J, Terradas J and Lloret F, 1998, Climate warming, wildfire hazard, and wildfire occurrence in coastal eastern Spain. Climatic change, 38(3), 345-357.

Podur J, Martell DL and Knight K, 2002, Statistical quality control analysis of forest fire activity in Canada. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 32(2), 195-205.

Resco de Dios V, Fischer C and Colinas C, 2007, Climate change effects on Mediterranean forests and preventive measures. New forests, 33(1), 29-40.

Rodbard D, 1974, Statistical quality control and routine data processing for radioimmunoassays and immunoradiometric assays. Clinical chemistry, 20(10), 1255-1270.

Sağlam B and Bilgili E, 2000, Fire occurrence in relation to weather conditions. IUFRO XXI World Congress.

Schilling J, Freier KP, Hertig E, et al. 2012, Climate change, vulnerability and adaptation in North Africa with focus on Morocco. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 156, 12-26.

Tedim F, Xanthopoulos G and Leone V, 2014, Forest Fires in Europe: Facts and Challenges. Wildfire Hazards, risks, and disasters, Edition: 1st, Chapter: 5, pp.77-99.

Turco M, Bedia J, Di Liberto F, et al. 2016, Decreasing Fires in Mediterranean Europe. PLoS one, 11(3), e0150663.

Türkeş M, 2012, Türkiye’de gözlenen ve öngörülen iklim değişikliği, kuraklık ve çölleşme. Ankara Üniversitesi Çevre Bilimleri Dergisi 4 (2): 1, 32.

Environment and Forestry Ministry, 2009, Forestry Statistics of Turkey, Ankara, Turkey.

Environment and Forestry Ministry, 2009, Forest Atlas, Ankara, Turkey.

Climate change and wildfires, viewed May 23 2016,

Wildfires and Climate Change, viewed May 23 2016,

Wildlife Guide, viewed May 23 2016,

Wildfires: A Symptom of Climate Change, viewed May 23 2016,

Extreme weather events are the new normal, viewed July 17 2017,

https://www.nature.com/news/extreme-weather-events-are-the-new-normal-1.22516

Velez R, 1982, Forest fires in the Mediterranean region. In Forest Fire Prevention and Control (pp. 37-51). Springer Netherlands.

Yavuz M, Saglam B, Kucuk O, et al. 2015, Assessing fuel load and fireline intensity in Bayam forest district, Turkey using Flam Map software and remote sensing techniquies. In International forest fire conference in Black Sea Region (pp. 6-8).

Westerling AL, Hidalgo HG, Cayan DR, et al. 2006, Warming and earlier spring increase western US forest wildfire activity. Science, 313(5789), 940-943.


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2018 Tugrul Varol, Mertol Ertuğrul, Halil Barış ÖZEL

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.