Risk Value Calculation of Storm Surge Disaster Based on POT Loss Distribution Fitting Model

Abstract

Recent Years, Frequent Storm Surge Disasters Caused by Abnormal Changes in Global Climate, Huge Disaster Losses to China. Scientific estimation of risk value of storm surge disaster, is of great significance for measuring storm surge disaster risk, estimation of storm surge disaster loss, guiding effective dispersion of disaster risk. In view of the distinct characteristics of low frequency and thick tail of storm surge disaster loss data in China, POT model based on extreme value theory is introduced to complete the fitting of direct economic loss distribution of storm surge disaster, calculate the risk value under different confidence levels, and pass the Kupiec failure frequency test.

Research shows that uses POT model to calculate the risk value under different confidence levels can be used as the basis for scientific measurement of storm surge disaster risk and reasonable estimation of the maximum possible loss of a single disaster.