Polish road type-specific trend models for predicting the frequency of traffic accidents
Abstract
Every year many people are fatally injured or killed on the roads. The number is still quite high, even if it is decreasing from year to year. Although there are fewer accidents on the roads since the epidemic, the number is still relatively high. To minimize the number of road accidents, it is important to understand which types of roads have the highest number of collisions and what the accident forecasts are for the coming years. The purpose of this article is to forecast the number of accidents on Polish roads according to their type. The study consisted of two parts. The first included a forecast of the number of road accidents for 2022–2031, based on an analysis of annual data from police statistics on the number of road accidents in Poland in 2000–2021. The second part of the study focused on monthly data from 2000–2021. In this case, a forecast was also set for the period from January 2022 to December 2023. The results of the study indicate that even after analyzing annual statistics, the number of incidents can be expected to stabilize in the coming years. This is mainly due to the expansion of expressways, especially highways, and the increase in traffic volume on Polish roads. It should be noted that the current epidemic is distorting the results.
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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18686/mt.v13i1.9292
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