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Research on the path of agricultural disaster reduction based on the perspective of water conservancy facilities

Li Junpeng, Zhang Yancai, Meng Xianghai


The fl ood and drought disasters have seriously restricted the grain planting in China, and the threat to food security cannot
be ignored. Water conservancy facilities can reduce agricultural natural disasters because they can allocate water resources. Therefore, it is
of great signifi cance to explore a feasible way to reduce agricultural fl oods and droughts from the perspective of water conservancy facilities
to ensure China’s food security. Based on the improvement of capital depreciation rate, capital stock in the base period and investment fl ow,
this paper estimates the capital stock of provincial water conservancy facilities using the Perpetual Inventory Method (PIM), and empirically
analyzes the impact of water conservancy facilities on the area aff ected by agricultural drought and fl ood disasters using the Spatial Dubin
Model (SDM). The research found that: (1) Water conservancy facilities have signifi cantly negative direct impact and spillover eff ect on
the drought affected area and flood affected area, indicating that water conservancy facilities can reduce agricultural flood and drought
disasters in this region, and reduce the occurrence of related disasters in other regions. (2) On the time dimension, the direct impact of water
conservancy facilities on the aff ected areas of drought and fl ood disasters is consistent, and with the increase of supply, its negative spillover
eff ect on the two natural disasters is gradually signifi cant. Based on the research conclusions and the actual situation of China’s infrastructure
construction and agricultural development, the following policy recommendations are put forward: (1) On the basis of optimizing the
investment and construction content, continue to strengthen the supply of water conservancy facilities and enhance the grain production’s
resistance to fl oods and droughts; (2) The investment and construction of water conservancy facilities need to achieve coordination and
cooperation among regions to improve investment effi ciency and utilization rate of water conservancy facilities. (3) Promote the promotion
and application of agricultural human capital, water-saving irrigation technology, and improve the disaster reduction effect of water
conservancy facilities.


water conservancy facilities; Capital stock; Drought; Flood disaster; Spatial Dubin model

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Included Database


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18686/modern-management-forum.v6i10.5862