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Energy Structure and Intensity Prediction During the 14th Five-Year Plan in China

Xing Zhang

Abstract


Markov chain and nonlinear cubic exponential smoothing model are respectively used to predict China’s energy
structure and energy intensity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The results show that the proportion of coal in China during
the 14th Five-year Plan period will decrease from 56.5% in 2020 to 51.7% in 2025. The share of non-fossil energy consumption
will rise from 16.1% in 2020 to 19.1% in 2025. Compared with 2020, the energy intensity of the three industries will decrease by
18%, 13% and 18% respectively. Based on the prediction results, the energy structure modulating and optimization is analyzed
and some suggestions are put forward.

Keywords


Energy structure; Energy intensity; Markov chain; Prediction

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References


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[4] LIU Dian-hai, YANG Yongping, YANG Kun, LI Daiqing, YANG Zhiping. Forecasting model and its application of energy structure and pollutant emission based on Markov chain. Electric Power,2006,39(3):8-13




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18686/ahe.v6i15.5145

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