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Research of Arbitrage based on Corn and Corn Starch Futures Contracts

Biyu Zhu, Mengdi Hao, Zixuan Wu, Mandi Yang, Wei Song, Zhenhan Fu

Abstract


This paper attempts to use Error Correction Model (ECM) to arbitrage in the futures market. Corn and corn starch futures contracts
are chosen since there is a high correlation between them. A passive investment method is used to compare with the result of ECM to examine whether it is effective in making benefits. For risk measure, this paper uses Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and Monte Carlo to calculate
the VaR value using the ratio derived above for risk management. The results show that with both higher return and lower risk, the model
built by ECM performed better than the benchmark investment method.

Keywords


Error Correction Model; Future Contract; Extreme Value Theory; Monte Carlo

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References


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18686/fm.v9i3.12770

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