Prediction of the “Tipping Point” to Widespread Uptake of Battery Electric Vehicles in China via Nonlinear Curve-Fitting Method

Abstract

The “Tipping Point” is a term that is widely used today to describe that a time or threshold once being surpassed would result in exponential growth in technology adoption or product sales in a specific industry. China’s BEV industry has grown tremendously in the past 10 years and recently, and China has been leading both BEV sales and manufacturing in the world. Thus, this paper aims to investigate the “Tipping Point” timeframe for Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) penetration in China. The major work is conducted in 3 steps. 1. This paper firstly defined the exactitude of “Tipping Point” as a 16% market penetration rate from Roger’s technology adoption model. 2. Then this paper used a simple exponential curve formula using the Levenberg–Marquardt Algorithm (LMA) calculation method to conduct nonlinear curve fitting modeling for various nations and testify the validity of our formula used. 3. Finally, after getting a positive result from these sample countries, this paper continues using this method to predict the 16% “Tipping Point” from several current predictions reports. It concludes with a calculated assumption that this 16% BEV market penetration rate would most likely occur by the end of 2024.