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Comparison of Forecasting Effect of SARIMA Model and Holt-Winters Smoothing Based on GDP

Chenghan Li


This study analyses ARIMA Model and Holt-Winters Smoothing. In this report, the GDP of Australia is taken as an example to illustrate the differences between these two models and to decide which model could show a better performance in term of forecasting. RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) is used as an indicator to compare the forecasting results of ARIMA Model and Holt-Winters Smoothing. After analysing, Holt-Winters Smoothing is found that could provide a more accurate result. This report provides people with basic ideas that how to use basic forecasting techniques to explore the future trends of some economic indicators.


SARIMA Model; Holt-Winters Smoothing; GDP

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18686/fm.v6i2.3303