• Login
  • Register
  • Search

The Debt Actuarial Model and Its Application of China's Implicit Pension

Xiaoyan Qi

Abstract


With the development of the times,the improvement of living standards and the extended average expected life, the pension insurance systems of countries have suffered from varying degrees of crisis,and reform actively.In this era background and trend,in 1997,China's basic pension system was accumulated by the current payment to social coordination and individual accounts.The revolutionary cost left in the old system has formed a huge implicit debt.To achieve the realization of the system transition, the key is to properly measure the size of the implicit debt and find the appropriate repayment pathway. Whether the pension system transformation is successfully correlated with the accurate calculated IPD amount and reasonable solutions.China is no exception to face IPD issues.This paper uses personal cost statement,combined with China's pension system and its operation,and establishs a implicit pension debt calculation model,and then uses statistics to measure China's IPD quantity.Finally,this paper proposes that the government increases the legal retirement age,reducing the replacement rate of pension, expanding the coverage of pension insurance,and improving the investment yield of pension funds to compensate for China's IPD.


Keywords


Recessive Pension Debt; Mathematical Analysis; Actuarial Model; Basic Pension Insurance System

Full Text:

PDF

Included Database


References


Washington D.C. The world bank. Old Age Security: Pension reform in China. 1997, 32-33, 38-53.

Song XW. The Report on the reform and Development of China's Social Security System. China Renmin University Press, 2001, 30-31, 230-235.

Wang XJ. China's pension system and its actuarial evaluation. Economic Science Press, 2000,123-132.

He P. China pension insurance fund calculation report. The Social Security System, 2001, (3).

Fang HY. The calculation of China's hidden public debt. Statistical studies, 1998.

Tan XY. Actuarial assessment of invisible debts of China's pension system. Statistics and decision making, 2003,7 (163): 18-19.

Gao JW. Research on the actuarial model of Chinese implicit pension debt and its application. Economic Math, 2004, 21 (2).

Cui YJ, Shen Y. The calculation of the hidden debt of the pay-as-you-go system and the change of interest rate. Journal of North China University of Technology, 2001,13 (3).

Dong M, Guo YJ, Yang HD. Actuarial analysis of the hidden debt of social endowment insurance under random interest rate. Systems Engineering, 2005, 23 (5): 55-60.

Bai MY, Lei L. The forecast of the future scale of China's pension hidden insurance debt. Mathematical Statistics and Management, 2008,27 (3): 354-361.

Li D, Liu ZS, Zhang YL. Estimation of hidden pension Debt scale in China. Financial Science, 2009,254 (5): 17-24.

Zhang FR, Xu CX. Research on the formation causes and countermeasures of the hidden debt of endowment insurance in China. Journal of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, 2007,126 (1).




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18686/fm.v8i4.5406

Refbacks